Date: Oct 26, 2016
Source: The Daily Star
Lebanon: Aoun election to presidency seems certain despite holdouts
Hussein Dakroub
BEIRUT: With five days to go before a Parliament session to elect a president, MP Michel Aoun appears to be edging closer to achieving his long-cherished dream of being chosen as the country’s next president despite continued opposition by Speaker Nabih Berri.

Having gained so far the support of the Future Movement, the Lebanese Forces, Hezbollah and some of its March 8 allies, Aoun, the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement, is assured of a sufficient parliamentary majority for his election as president at the Parliament session set for next Monday.

MP Walid Jumblatt’s 11-member parliamentary bloc has yet to decide on whether to uphold its declared support for Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Frangieh’s nomination for the presidency, or back Aoun’s presidential bid.

However, Berri’s strong opposition to Aoun’s nomination and Frangieh’s renewed pledge Monday to stay in the race, are unlikely to scuttle the FPM founder’s election.

“All preparations have been made and the election of Gen. Michel Aoun as president is certain next Monday,” MP Alain Aoun from the FPM told the Voice of Lebanon radio station (100.5) Tuesday.

Asked to comment on strained ties between Berri and Aoun, he said: “Berri’s position in the setup of national unity is preserved and no one can grab it from him.”

On the possibility of convening a national dialogue session ahead of Monday’s Parliament session to ensure a wider consensus over the election of Aoun, the MP said: “Any useful step to remove obstacles before the session is debatable.”

Earlier in the day, parliamentary sources that participated in national dialogue meetings last month proposed a dialogue session to be chaired by Berri at his Ain al-Tineh residence Saturday, two days before the Parliament session.

Sources in the FPM said Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, the FPM leader, would attend the session aimed at creating a positive atmosphere for the Parliament session. The sources said they do not expect any change in the blocs’ positions on Aoun’s candidacy, including that of Berri, who has declared that he will not vote for the FPM founder.

However, sources close to Berri denied that the speaker planned to hold any national dialogue meetings before the Parliament session. “The convening of a national dialogue session ahead of the Parliament session was proposed to Berri, who rejected the idea outright,” a senior March 8 source told The Daily Star.The source said Berri’s 13-member parliamentary bloc would attend the Parliament session but would not vote for Aoun. The source expected Aoun to be elected as president in the second round of voting.

A candidate needs a two-thirds majority, or 86 MPs, to be elected president in the first round of voting. But in the second round, a simple majority is sufficient to declare a candidate a winner.

Berri, who is currently in Geneva to attend meetings of an international union of parliaments, said the election of a new president was necessary but would not be sufficient to solve the country’s many problems, such as the approval of a new electoral law and the Syrian refugee crisis.

“We are steps away, God willing, from the election of a president on Oct. 31. We hope that we achieve this step because Lebanon is in dire need for it, but without delving into sensitivities that have left us without a president for more than two and a half years,” Berri said during a dinner hosted by Lebanon’s U.N. Ambassador in Geneva Najla Assaker Monday night.

“Of course, this matter [the election of a president] is essential, but it is insufficient. After the election, there is the greater jihad relating to other Lebanese challenges, such as an electoral law based on justice for women and at the same time based on proportional representation in order to take steps that will reduce sectarianism,” he added.

The FPM said it would reject any postponement of the Parliament session, while insisting that Aoun needed a simple vote majority, not two-thirds, to win.

FPM lawmaker Ibrahim Kanaan said that members of Aoun’s parliamentary Change and Reform bloc would attend the session to vote for Aoun, ending the party’s 2-1/2-year boycott of election sessions.

“The Lebanese have been accustomed to waiting for a secret word from abroad to decide the presidential election ... But today, internal initiatives among various parties have eliminated barriers separating the so-called March 8 and March 14 [camps] and reduced the foreign impact in favor of making the election a purely Lebanese affair,” Kanaan told a news conference following the bloc’s weekly meeting chaired by Aoun at his residence in Rabieh. He added that the new president would be “a president made in Lebanon.”

When asked by a reporter about the number of votes he believed Aoun needed to win the presidency, Kanaan said that he considered the session on Oct. 31 would be the second session to vote for presidency, since 44 of the past 45 election sessions did not achieve a quorum. That means the president would be elected by a simple majority, Kanaan added.

For his part, Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai sounded optimistic that a new president would be elected next week, a day after he met with Aoun and blessed his nomination for the presidency.

“The election of a new president amounts to the rise of a new dawn in Lebanon,” Rai said during a meeting with members of the Lebanese Press Syndicate at his seat in Bkirki. He called for the election of “a strong president backed by popular political blocs” and underlined the need for the implementation of the Taif Accord and respect of democracy.

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth Richard discussed the presidential election during separate meetings with Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea.

Geagea also met at his residence in Maarab with the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin with whom he discussed efforts to end the presidential vacuum.