Hiba Huneini| The Daily Star

We have been following the Syrian crisis since 2011, the biggest forced displacement crisis since World War II, and witnessing unprecedented violence, war crimes and the highest numbers of refugees and displaced people. Behind all statistics and reports, there are an immense number of human suffering stories that make of the Syrian conflict a global tragedy.

According to Abdallah Al Dardari, Deputy Executive Secretary, U.N. ESCWA, in his intervention during the World Bank session “Governance Requirements for Rebuilding Syria,” the Syrian conflict is assumed to end by the end of 2016 according to the second-best scenario defined by the National Agenda for the Future of Syria “NAFS Agenda.”

As for the post-conflict reconstruction process, the Syrian economy is expected to return to the GDP level of 2010 by the end of 2027, starting from early 2017 with effective fund flow equaling as much as $200 billion under the likely scenario.

Some 63 percent of the required fund, equal to $126 billion, is mobilized in various forms and from various sources to support Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction. This would enable the Syrian economy to generate the remaining 37 percent, which is equal to $74 billion. This approach is expected to result in a policy that will likely extend the suffering of the affected populations and consequently threatening peace.

For this reason, sustaining international humanitarian support for the additional period in the peace-building phase is indispensable.

Within the framework of international support in response to the Syrian crisis, the MENA Financing initiative is established to provide urgent development support to countries in the MENA region most affected by the influx of refugees, in particular due to the Syrian crisis, as well as countries impacted by conflict and instability.

This initiative is the result of the partnership between the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the Islamic Development Bank Group, with the objective of strengthening coordination between humanitarian and development assistance to deliver additional financing to the MENA region.

The financing strategy includes the Concessional Financing Facility and Guaranteeing Facility. As for the Concessional Financing Facility, it aims to combine grants from supporting countries with loans from Multi Development Banks, bringing down the interest rate on the loans to highly concessional levels.

Therefore, middle-income countries in the MENA region affected by large numbers of refugees will have access to the concessional development assistance they urgently need.

The Guarantee Facility aims to use guarantees from supporting countries to provide additional volumes of financing on top of the current lending portfolios from traditional development partners to support countries in the MENA region that have significant recovery and reconstruction needs.

The post-conflict reconstruction in Syria is on the discussions table of the entire international arena, and through this week serious and intensive meetings and decisions are being taken regarding the future of Syria.

For this reason, the post-conflict reconstruction designs are being almost formulated to commence the national reconstruction workshop on the day the war is over. While the focus is being oriented on infrastructure and economic growth, what about the core themes of reconstruction: justice, security and rule of law?

Once concluded, the war will leave a failed state with inadequate systems of governance to address the transnational dangers. For this reason, we need to better understand the displaced and residents using the most modern methodologies in people science since the tragedies and social problems inherent in the migration crisis could be corrosive and create a series of explosions which would lead to tearing apart the infrastructure and the entire reconstruction process.

Lebanon’s post-conflict reconstruction constitutes a case study in balancing between the “hard” and “soft” reconstruction. Then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri led the reconstruction process equally at all levels with a focus on setting a tone of hope and opportunity.

This has created legitimacy and trust among people who had the courage and hope to take initiatives and innovate in Lebanon. In addition, hundreds of intellectuals and professionals were encouraged to return home and invest their capacities in their country.

Therefore, Hariri’s long-term vision was able to ensure the peace dividend in the reconstruction process to dispel the war’s implications from people’s minds in line with the removal of the ruins and the implementation of grand developmental projects.

The future of Syria and transition from conflict to peace is still uncertain, but we all hope that the reconstruction process will be an engine of reform under a clear vision toward achieving coexistence among Syrians. In this way, we can ensure that stability and security will not divert all the allocated funds and efforts from reform and prosperity of Syria and its neighborhood.