Date: Nov 18, 2011
Source: The Daily Star
Syria risks ‘full-scale civil war’

AMMAN/DAMASCUS/WASHINGTON: Russia stood by President Bashar Assad Thursday as Arab and Western countries sought to pile pressure on the Syrian leader to halt a violent crackdown on his opponents.
Meanwhile, rebel troops hit offices of Syria’s ruling party, a day after a daring raid on an intelligence base prompted Russia to warn that its longtime ally risks “full-scale civil war.”The rocket-propelled grenade attack in northwestern Idlib province, near Turkey, came as security forces killed eight people, including two children, despite an Arab League demand that Syria halt the bloodshed or risk sanctions.


“A group of dissident troops attacked regime youth offices, where security agents were meeting, with rocket-propelled grenades and clashes broke out,” said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The Arab League has suspended Syria from its meetings and given it until the end of the week to comply with an Arab peace plan to end bloodshed that has cost more than 3,500 lives, by a U.N. count.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose country is one of Syria’s few remaining foreign friends, said demands for Assad’s removal would destroy the initiative, which calls for dialogue between the Syrian government and its foes.


“If some opposition representatives, with support from some foreign countries, declare that dialogue can begin only after President Assad goes, then the Arab League initiative becomes worthless and meaningless,” Lavrov said.
He was speaking after talks with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who said the world must bring all the influence it can bear on Syria to change course.
“The future of Syria now depends on the ability of all of us to keep pressure on them to see that there is a need to stop this violence, to listen to the people and to find a way to move forward,” Ashton told a joint news conference in Moscow.


Lavrov said earlier a raid Wednesday by the Free Syrian Army on an Air Force Intelligence complex on the outskirts of Damascus was “already completely similar to real civil war.”


Opposition sources said Syrian army defectors had killed or wounded 20 security police in the early morning attack, the first of its kind in an eight-month revolt against Assad.
It was not possible to verify the casualty toll. The authorities have not mentioned the attack. Syria has barred most foreign media since unrest began in March.


The United States disagreed Thursday with Russia’s assessment that attacks by renegade Syrian troops risked plunging Syria into civil war, blaming the regime in Damascus for the violence. “We think that’s an incorrect assessment,” U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner told reporters.


“If it [Russia] characterizes it as a civil war, we view that it is very much the [President Bashar] Assad regime carrying out a campaign of violence, intimidation and repression against innocent protesters,” Toner said.
“We don’t view it as a civil war,” he said when asked again whether he disagreed with Lavrov.


A U.S. State Department official later told reporters on condition of anonymity that the Russian comments only fueled the propaganda of the Assad regime which claims that the uprising is led by thugs and terrorists.
“Civil war ... just plays in the Syrian government’s hands that this is some terrorist movement against the government, and that’s just not the case,” the official said.
“It’s been from the very inception a peaceful movement,” he said.
“We have seen violence, we do believe it takes the country down a dangerous path, but the Syrian regime’s oppression, repression and killing of innocent civilians has exacerbated the situation and led to this,” the official added.


Residents of Harasta, the suburb where the Air Force Intelligence compound is located, said army deserters had fired rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns for 10 minutes, provoking a security sweep that netted about 70 people.


Along with Military Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence is charged with preventing dissent within the armed forces.
Syria blames the violence on foreign-backed armed groups it says have killed more than 1,100 soldiers and police.
Hundreds of people have been killed this month, one of the bloodiest periods in the revolt that began in March. The United Nations says more than 3,500 people have died in the unrest. Catherine Altalli, of the opposition Syrian National Council, said Wednesday’s assault was understandable after the violence, detention and torture used on peaceful protesters.


“I am not saying this is right. There have to be limits,” she said. “But what is unacceptable is that every day bodies come out with marks of torture from Air Force Intelligence buildings and other secret police dungeons across Syria.”
Washington said it had few details and no confirmation of the incident, but that Assad was courting trouble.


Syria’s pervasive security apparatus, dominated by Assad’s minority Alawite sect, underpins the power structure that has enabled Assad and his father before him to rule for 41 years.
The bloodshed in Syria has angered other Arab and Western nations, whose criticism of Assad led to several attacks on diplomatic missions in Damascus and other cities this week.


Syrian state media said the authorities had vowed to prosecute anyone who carried out such attacks.
France said it was encouraging Syrian opposition groups, including the Paris-based Syrian National Council, but still opposes outside military intervention.


“We have had contacts with them ... in any case we are helping them, we are encouraging them to get organized,” Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told French BFM radio.


France was the first Western nation to recognize Libyan rebels in March, but has yet to endorse any Syrian group.
While the West appears to have no appetite for military intervention in Syria, a leader of Syria’s outlawed Muslim Brotherhood said Turkish military action might be acceptable.


“If other interventions are required, such as air protection, because of the regime’s intransigence, then the people will accept Turkish intervention. They do not want Western intervention,” Mohammad Riad Shaqfa, who lives in exile in Saudi Arabia, told a news conference in Istanbul.


Ankara is considering imposing sanctions on Syria, has hosted opponents of Assad and is working with the Arab League to increase pressure on Damascus, but denies any plan to intervene militarily in its southern neighbor.
An Israeli general warned Monday that Assad’s fall would bring about an Islamic empire, led by the Muslim Brotherhood. Amos Gilad, the head of the Israel’s Defense Ministry’s diplomatic-security bureau, said the removal of Syria’s leader would lead to a “devastating crisis for Israel.”


“If Assad is ousted by the popular revolt, the Middle East would be facing an Islamic empire led by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria,” he was quoted as saying by the pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stepped up the rhetoric Thursday, saying more would be heard from the international community if Syria had rich oil resources like Libya.


“The silence and unresponsiveness of those who have an appetite for Libya to the massacres in Syria is creating irreparable wounds in the conscience of humanity,” he charged.
Erdogan met visiting Juppe Thursday to discuss Syria.
No U.N. sanctions against Syria seem likely given opposition from Russia and China, which last month vetoed a draft Security Council resolution condemning Damascus.


France, Britain and Germany plan to ask the U.N. General Assembly’s human rights committee to approve a resolution condemning the violence in Syria, before putting the nonbinding measure to a vote in an Assembly plenary session.


Burhan Ghalioun, head of the Syrian National Council, called for a calming of sectarian tensions between Alawites and majority Sunni Muslims, especially in the restive city of Homs. “We have seen in the last few weeks kidnappings, assassination and score-settling among members of the same people, even from within the sons of the revolution, which poses a dangerous threat to the gains of the revolution and offers a big service to the regime,” he said in a statement.