BEIRUT: The Cabinet formation and attempts to endorse a new electoral law are two explosive issues that dominated the political scene in Lebanon this week, raising fears of the fragile country drifting toward chaos.

 

Given the deep-rooted political differences between the March 8 and March 14 camps and in the absence of regional powers’ intervention to contain the mounting tensions, all signs indicate that failure to agree on a new Cabinet and an election law might jeopardize stability in the country.

 

This alarming situation emerged to the fore following a series of stern warnings issued by Hezbollah and its March 8 allies to Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam that the formation of what they called a “fait accompli government” could destabilize Lebanon.

 

Similar warnings have been made by March 14 politicians against attempts to vote on the controversial Orthodox Gathering proposal, which allows each sect to elect its own MPs based on proportional representation with a single, nationwide electoral district.

 

“A vote on the Orthodox proposal will spark a national crisis similar to what would have happened had a fait accompli government been announced,” March 14 lawmaker Marwan Hamadeh told the Voice of Lebanon radio station Tuesday.

 

He was referring to the Orthodox Gathering proposal, which is the sole item on the agenda of Wednesday’s Parliament session designed to discuss a new electoral law. Speaker Nabih Berri has scheduled four consecutive legislative sessions starting Wednesday to discuss and approve a new electoral law, with the Orthodox proposal topping the agenda.

 

The lack of agreement on a new electoral law among rival political groups has raised the possibility of postponing the June elections, and consequently extending Parliament’s four-year mandate, which expires on June 20.

 

Caretaker Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour from MP Walid Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc also voiced fears that Lebanon was on “the doorsteps of a major national crisis” because of the deadlock over the Cabinet formation and an election law.

 

However, despite the bleak outlook, political analysts said there was no threat to Lebanon’s stability as a result of the monthlong Cabinet deadlock and failed attempts to agree on a new electoral law.

 

They concurred that regional and international powers, already preoccupied with the 26-month-long bloody conflict in Syria, still supported stability in Lebanon.

 

“Lebanon will not implode over the obstacles facing the formation of a new Cabinet and the Greek Orthodox electoral law,” Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, told The Daily Star. “The fact that there is a deadlock in Lebanese politics means that there are foundational problems with the system. This is normal in Lebanese politics to disagree on everything.”

 

“Lebanon is not heading anywhere because the international and regional powers have no interest in derailing its stability and security, mainly because undermining the state of Lebanon does not benefit anybody,” Khashan added.

 

Abdallah Bou Habib, Lebanon’s former ambassador to the United States, predicted an eleventh hour compromise among the rival factions over a new electoral law that would halt Lebanon’s slide into chaos.

 

He said the approval of a new election law and the formation of a new Cabinet are interlinked.

 

“The local factions will reach a compromise on a new election law at the last minute with the approval of regional powers before the May 19 deadline,” Bou Habib told The Daily Star, referring to the deadline set by Berri for Parliament to endorse a new electoral law.

 

“An agreement on a new election law will facilitate the formation of a new Cabinet,” he said.

 

But Bou Habib warned that failure to reach a compromise on a vote law and a new Cabinet would plunge Lebanon into “a power vacuum and chaos.”

 

Harith Chebab, secretary-general of the Islamic-Christian National Dialogue Committee, dispelled fears of a military explosion in Lebanon over the Cabinet and election law deadlock.

 

“There is no regional or international interest in destabilizing Lebanon. Any [military] flare-up in Lebanon will have reverberations throughout the entire region, which is already sitting on a volcano boiling,” Chebab, who represents the Maronite Church in the dialogue committee, told The Daily Star.

 

“Without a compromise among the rival factions, Lebanon will slide into the abyss, a power vacuum or a violent confrontation,” he said.

 

He added that Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai was trying through his emissaries, who have met with rival political leaders, to reach a deal on a new electoral law.

 

“The patriarch was making efforts to prevent the country’s drift toward a confrontation or a vacuum,” Chebab said. “An agreement on an election law will help in the formation of a new Cabinet.”

 

If no deal is reached on a vote law, Chebab said, lawmakers will extend Parliament’s mandate for six months, renewable for another six months.

 

Carol Malouf, a political communications consultant, also ruled out the possibility of sectarian clashes over the Cabinet and vote law stalemate.

 

“Lebanon will neither explode, nor implode over the formation of a new Cabinet or a new election law,” Malouf told The Daily Star.

 

“The parties will find a way to settle their differences over an election law and the formation of a new government,” she said.

 

Malouf said violence did not serve the interest of any of the local players.

 

Referring to Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian fighting, she said: “The pro-Hezbollah camp, which is preoccupied with the Syrian front, does not want to see Lebanon destabilized.”

 

“Likewise, it is not in the interest of the March 14 coalition to import the Syrian scenario to the Lebanese scene,” Malouf said.

 

She added that she expected Berri, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to find a way to defuse tension in Lebanon.

 

Referring to the role of regional powers in keeping Lebanon stable, Malouf said:

 

“The recent diplomatic shuttle diplomacy in the region reflected a determination to manage the Syrian crisis and maintain stability in Lebanon by offering incentives to the decision-makers in Lebanon.”

 

Khashan, the AUB professor, also predicted a compromise among the feuding parties over an election law and a new Cabinet.

 

He said in Lebanon compromise is difficult “because the common denominator that brings the Lebanese politicians together is small.”

 

“Lebanon is tied to the developments of the situation in Syria. Each side [March 8 and March 14] is betting on the success of the Syrian faction they support. Eventually, since the solution to the crisis in Syria will be based on accommodation, this means that the Lebanese factions have no option but to reach a compromise,” Khashan said.

 

“Any agreement that reflects the balance of power in the region will reflect the balance of power in Lebanon,” he said, adding: “As matters stand now, it is highly unlikely that the Syrian opposition will prevail. Therefore, the March 14 coalition will necessarily have to lower the ceiling of their expectations.”

 

Referring to political divisions in Lebanon, Khashan said: “The potentially explosive tension in Lebanon is at a mass level. However, at the level of political chiefs, the situation is very much under control.”