BEIRUT: The latest Cabinet crisis, coupled with the yearlong presidential vacuum and Parliament’s inability to legislate or elect a president, is likely to paralyze the last branch of power, putting the country’s economy and stability into jeopardy, analysts said Friday.

“After the thorny issue of security appointments has thrown the Cabinet into paralysis, all state institutions have become entirely paralyzed,” Sami Nader, a professor of economics and international relations at Saint Joseph University, told The Daily Star.

“Lebanon is following the pattern of disintegration sweeping across the entire region. The country is threatened with paralysis, disintegration and disunity amid growing threats of terrorism,” said Nader, who is also director of Beirut-based think tank, Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.

He added that Prime Minister Tammam Salam’s Cabinet, formed in February 2014, was barely productive because of deep differences among its ministers. “Now the Cabinet has been flung into total paralysis following the Free Patriotic Movement’s threat to obstruct the government’s work until a new Army commander is appointed,” Nader said.

Nader added that the dispute within the government over MP Michel Aoun’s persistent demand to appoint his son-in-law, Brig. Gen. Shamel Roukoz, head of the Army Commando Unit, as a new Army commander replacing Gen. Jean Kahwagi, who retires on Sept. 23, is politicizing the military institution.

“With all state institutions in paralysis, the conflict over the security and military appointments is politicizing and jeopardizing the Lebanese Army, the only remaining institution in the country,” Nader said.

MP Atef Majdalani from the Future Movement painted a much gloomier outlook about the country’s future in view of the creeping paralysis into the constitutional institutions.

Asked if he agreed with Al-Mustaqbal newspaper’s banner headline Friday that reads: “The Republic is in danger,” Majdalani’s answer was in the positive. “The country is heading for a Houthi-style scenario spearheaded by Lebanese Houthis: Hezbollah and the FPM,” he told The Daily Star, in a reference to the Shiite Houthi rebels who seized large swaths of territory in Yemen, before Saudi Arabia led a military intervention in March to stop their advance.

“Hezbollah is making preparations to paralyze all constitutional institutions, stage a coup with a view to forming a one-sided government and set the stage for a constituent conference to change the current political system,” Majdalani said.

He dismissed as “illogical” Aoun’s demand to appoint a new Army chief before Kahwagi’s term expires on Sept. 23. He also ruled out the possibility of Cabinet paralysis, despite the FPM’s threats.

“The FPM’s ministers and their allies do not constitute a majority in the Cabinet. Therefore, they cannot paralyze its work,” Majdalani said.

The Cabinet plunged into paralysis Thursday after it failed to agree on the thorny issue of security appointments, while it authorized the Army to take action to protect Arsal from Islamist militants entrenched on the northeastern town’s outskirts.

After Cabinet was unable to agree on a new head of the Internal Security Forces, Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk signed a decree, effectively extending by two years the mandate of ISF chief Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Basbous, who was to retire Friday.

The Cabinet move immediately drew the wrath of the FPM ministers. Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil said the FPM’s ministers would block any Cabinet decision from now on before security appointments are made.

“We will not allow the endorsement or even the discussion of any Cabinet decision before the issue of security appointments is resolved,” Bassil said. “Take your time and think about the matter; we are ready to discuss security appointments only in Cabinet.”

The FPM’s ministers and their allies will attend next Thursday’s Cabinet session to discuss the issue of military and security appointments, but they will not agree to any other Cabinet decision, sources said.

In this case, Salam has two options: either to accept discussion of the security appointments or put off the session in order to avert a clash, the sources said.

Parliamentary sources in the FPM warned of street protests by the group’s supporters if the issue of security appointments was not resolved by the Cabinet. “The FPM will resort to street demonstrations under the slogan of preserving the Christians’ rights,” the sources said, adding that FPM supporters would urge Muslims to let Christians choose the right person for the presidency and the Army Command, in addition to Christians in first category state posts.

“We are heading to a dangerous phase if the current situation persists,” FPM MP Walid Khoury told the Voice of Lebanon radio station. He said the Cabinet is capable of approving the security appointments.

Since its formation last year, Salam’s Cabinet has been riven by deep differences and unable to decide on crucial issues. Salam declared the government’s main goals were to maintain stability and set the stage for parliamentary elections. The government was constitutionally obliged to temporarily fill the presidential vacuum the country fell into last May.

Shafik Masri, a professor of law at the Lebanese University and the American University of Beirut, said the rift over security appointments would slow the Cabinet’s productivity and affect its decisions.

“The Cabinet constitutionally exists because none of its members has tendered his resignation. Under the Constitution, the Cabinet can hold sessions when a quorum of half of its members is secured,” he said.

Despite the FPM’s threats to obstruct the government’s decisions, Masri said under the Constitution the Cabinet can make important decisions with two-thirds of its members.

Masri rejected the argument, held by the FPM ministers, that all 24 ministers must sign any Cabinet decision. “This is a political interpretation that does not conform with the Constitution,” he said.

He said he expected the FPM to keep up its pressure on the government until the term of the Army commander expires in September.

Asked where Lebanon is heading in view of the impending Cabinet deadlock, Masri said: “The current situation will go on until the end of June. If by that time a nuclear agreement is reached [between Iran and the U.S.], this would lead to breakthroughs on several fronts, including Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.”

“A nuclear deal will prompt Iran to show flexibility on regional conflicts. Iran badly needs a nuclear deal in order to have the [U.N.] sanctions on it lifted,” Masri said. “The lifting of the sanctions will provide Iran with $150 billion.”

He also stressed that any president who was “provocative” toward Iran, Saudi Arabia or Hezbollah would not be elected.